Black Friday 2017 price predictions for Amazon Hardware (Fire TV, Fire Tablets, Echo, & Kindle)

Amazon’s big 2017 Black Friday sale will be here soon. Apart from Prime Day, which is limited to Prime members, Black Friday is usually when you’ll save the most on Amazon’s devices. The online retailer hasn’t revealed any of their expected sale prices yet, but a few Black Friday ads from other retailers that sell Amazon’s devices have leaked, so they give us a very good idea of what kind of prices to expect from Amazon. Using those leaked ads and historic Black Friday prices, here are the prices I predict you’ll see this Black Friday for Amazon’s Fire TVs, Fire Tablets, Echos, and Kindles.

As I do every year, I’ll be keeping track of all the best Amazon Black Friday deals and posting them as soon as they go live, so be sure to check AFTVnews when the sales start and check often. Amazon’s sale prices will likely go live on the night of November 22nd, the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

Fire TV

Predicted Price: $69.99 $49.99

Regular Price: $69.99
Prediction Confidence: Low

The Black Friday price of the new 3rd generation Fire TV is the most difficult price to predict. Since it was just released last month, there's a good chance it will not go on sale at all. The fact that it has not appeared in leaked Black Friday ads, but the Fire TV Stick has, is further evidence that it will not go on sale. However, when the Fire TV 2 was released in 2015 for $99.99, it shockingly went on sale during Black Friday a month later for $74.99. Based on that fact, and that fact alone, I'm going out on a limb and say the Fire TV 3 will surprisingly be on sale during Black Friday for around the same 25% off as the Fire TV 2 dropped during its first Black Friday, which puts the predicted sale price at around $49.99.

UPDATE: Now that Best Buy's Black Friday ad is out and it too does not include a discount on the Fire TV 3, I'm updating my prediction to be that the Fire TV 3 will likely not be on sale during this Black Friday.

Fire TV Stick

Predicted Price: $24.99

Regular Price: $39.99
Prediction Confidence: High

The leaked Target Black Friday ad has the Fire TV Stick on sale for $24.99, so it's likely that will be Amazon's sale price as well. The lowest price the current Fire TV Stick has ever been is $29.99, which last occurred during Black Friday last year, however, the 1st generation Fire TV Stick did reach an all time low of $24.99 during Black Friday in 2015. The Fire TV Stick was having sever supply issues during Prime Day this year, which is likely why it was not on sale during Prime Day. Had there not been supply issues, the Fire TV Stick likely would have been $24.99 during Prime Day, to match the 1st generations sale price history.

Fire TV Edition Television

Predicted Price: See below

Regular Price: $449.99 (43"), $549.99 (50"), $649.99 (55"), $899.99 (65")
Prediction Confidence: Low

There's a chance that Amazon will have at least one size of the Fire TV Edition Television on sale at a very low "Door Buster" price in very short supply. This is what they did for Prime Day with the 55" size, which they had available for $399.99 until it sold out 4 hours after going live. The following are the "Door Buster" prices that I predict for Black Friday if Amazon decides to do this again. I did not list these prices above because I did not want to give the impression that all sizes would be available at these prices all day. Predicted low-supply "Door Buster" prices: $299.99 (43"), $349.99 (50"), $399.99 (55"), $599.99 (65")

Fire 7 Tablet

Predicted Price: $29.99

Regular Price: $49.99
Prediction Confidence: High

All Fire Tablets were in the leaked Target ad, so these prices are almost certain. Keep an eye out for bundles that include multiple tablets or other devices, like the Echo Dot, to save even more.

Fire HD 8 Tablet

Predicted Price: $49.99

Regular Price: $79.99
Prediction Confidence: High

All Fire Tablets were in the leaked Target ad, so these prices are almost certain. Keep an eye out for bundles that include multiple tablets or other devices, like the Echo Dot, to save even more.

Fire HD 10 Tablet

Predicted Price: $99.99

Regular Price: $149.99
Prediction Confidence: High

All Fire Tablets were in the leaked Target ad, so these prices are almost certain. Keep an eye out for bundles that include multiple tablets or other devices, like the Echo Dot, to save even more.

Fire 7 Kids Edition Tablet

Predicted Price: $69.99

Regular Price: $99.99
Prediction Confidence: High

All Fire Tablets were in the leaked Target ad, so these prices are almost certain. Keep an eye out for bundles that include multiple tablets or other devices, like the Echo Dot, to save even more.

Fire HD 8 Kids Edition Tablet

Predicted Price: $89.99

Regular Price: $129.99
Prediction Confidence: High

All Fire Tablets were in the leaked Target ad, so these prices are almost certain. Keep an eye out for bundles that include multiple tablets or other devices, like the Echo Dot, to save even more.

Amazon Echo

Predicted Price: $79.99

Regular Price: $99.99
Prediction Confidence: High

The 2nd generation Echo was in the leaked Target Black Friday ad at this predicted price, so it's safe to assume Amazon will match the price.

Amazon Echo Dot

Predicted Price: $29.99

Regular Price: $49.99
Prediction Confidence: High

Both Target's and Kohl's leaked Black Friday ads listed the Echo Dot for $29.99, so it's safe to say that will be Amazon's price as well. This will be the new all time lowest price for the Echo Dot, since it was $34.99 during this year's Prime Day and $39.99 during last year's Black Friday. Before you jump on this sale price when it goes live, there's a good chance the Echo Dot will be bundled with many different devices on Black Friday. Those bundles will usually save you a bit more than buying the devices separately, so if you're planning to buy any other Amazon device in addition to the Echo Dot, be sure to check if there is a bundle deal before buying the items separately. I'll be sure to find and post about all the different Echo Dot bundles once the sales go live, so be sure to check AFTVnews.

Amazon Echo Plus

Predicted Price: $119.99

Regular Price: $149.99
Prediction Confidence: High

This price is a complete guess on my part based on the same 20% discount that the 2nd Gen Echo is receiving. There's a good chance the Echo Plus will not be on sale at all during Black Friday, since it has not appeared in any leaked ads. UPDATE: CNET writer Ry Crist has tweeted that the Echo Plus will be $119.99 for Black Friday, so it looks like my guess is accurate.

Amazon Echo Show

Predicted Price: $179.99

Regular Price: $229.99
Prediction Confidence: High

The Echo Show was listed for $179.99 in Target's Black Friday ad, so it's likely Amazon will have the same price. This will be the new all-time lowest price for the Echo Show.

Amazon Tap

Predicted Price: $79.99

Regular Price: $129.99
Prediction Confidence: Medium

The Amazon Tap has not been in any leaked ads, but this price has been pretty standard for the Tap's all time lowest price, so I expect Amazon to repeat it again this year.

Amazon Echo Look

Predicted Price: $199.99

Regular Price: $199.99
Prediction Confidence: High

The Echo Look is still only available to purchase via invitation. Unless Amazon removes the invitation requirement before Black Friday, I do not believe the Echo Look will go on sale during Black Friday this year.

Amazon Echo Spot

Predicted Price: $129.99

Regular Price: $129.99
Prediction Confidence: High

While the Echo Spot is currently available to pre-order, it will not be released until December. Amazon has never had a Black Friday sale on a pre-order item, so I'm fairly confident the Echo Spot will not be on sale during Black Friday this year.

Amazon Cloud Cam

Predicted Price: $99.99

Regular Price: $119.99
Prediction Confidence: High

CNET writer Ry Crist has tweeted that the Cloud Cam will be $20 off for Black Friday.

Amazon Kindle

Predicted Price: $49.99

Regular Price: $79.99
Prediction Confidence: Medium

None of the Amazon Kindle models have been in any of the leaked Black Friday ads. I expect Amazon will repeat the usual sale prices that we've seen in the past.

Amazon Kindle Paperwhite

Predicted Price: $89.99

Regular Price: $119.99
Prediction Confidence: High

None of the Amazon Kindle models have been in any of the leaked Black Friday ads. I expect Amazon will repeat the usual sale prices that we've seen in the past. $99.99 is just as likely of a price for the Kindle Paperwhite this Black Friday.

Staples has posted their Black Friday Ad and have the Paperwhite for $89.99, so it's pretty certain that will also be Amazon's price.

Amazon Kindle Voyage

Predicted Price: $149.99

Regular Price: $199.99
Prediction Confidence: Medium

None of the Amazon Kindle models have been in any of the leaked Black Friday ads. I expect Amazon will repeat the usual sale prices that we've seen in the past. $169.99 is just as likely of a price for the Kindle Voyage this Black Friday.

Amazon Kindle Oasis

Predicted Price: $249.99

Regular Price: $249.99
Prediction Confidence: Low

Since the 2nd generation Kindle Oasis just came out, I don't think it will be on sale during Black Friday this year. Amazon never put the 1st generation WiFi Kindle Oasis on sale, so that's more reason to believe they won't reduce the new one either.

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12 comments
  1. Erin says:

    The Plus will be $119.99 starting November 19th. Ry Crist posted a few Black Friday Amazon deals on his Twitter today and that was one of them.https://twitter.com/rycrist/status/927624098351603712

  2. Nate says:

    Will these price drops also be applied to the non-“Special Offers” versions too? E.g. Non Special Offer HD 8 Tablet is currently $94.99; will it also drop by $30 to $64.99 as well?

  3. himad says:

    ELIAS !! Fire Tv Stick (basic edition) available in France and Belgium. https://www.amazon.fr/gp/product/B01ETRGE7M/ref=sv_kinc_2 Finally :)

  4. Kirk says:

    What do you think about the price for Amazon Prime? Will we see a $79 price tag for Amazon Prime on Black Friday or Cyber Monday?
    Been thinking about getting Prime, but I don’t want to pay the regular price now if I can hold off for a few weeks and get a discounted price.

  5. hawkstead says:

    Elias,
    Any word or gut feeling about an amazon drive discount? I missed the $5 promo last year.

  6. Hopefully the link works below
    Just posted from Fred Meyer for Black Friday Flyer.
    Showers some Echo devises and the pricing.
    Echo Second Gen Speaker $79.99
    Echo Show $179.99
    Echo Dot $29.99
    Your prediction pretty good.

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