Amazon Device Buyer’s Guide updated and early Black Friday 2018 price predictions

It’s very likely that there will not be any new Amazon devices announced between now and the end of the year, so I’ve gone through and updated my Amazon Device Buyer’s Guide with all the new Fire TV, Echo, Fire Tablet, and Kindle hardware that has recently been announced. Since the holidays are right around the corner and the main purpose of the buyer’s guide is to help you judge how good a particular Amazon device sale is, I’ve spent extra care updating my “Okay/Good/Great” sale price guidelines to give you an idea of what deals to expect in the coming months. If you’re wondering specifically about Black Friday 2018 prices, here’s a detailed breakdown of my early predictions.

Fire TV Black Friday 2018 Prices

I expect the regular Amazon Fire TV Stick to be $19.99 during Black Friday 2018, down from $39.99. It was that price during Prime Day 2018 and I can’t see Amazon selling it for any less. As for the new Fire TV Stick 4K, even though it will have only been released for a month when Black Friday rolls around, I think there’s a decent chance it will be on sale for $39.99, down from $49.99. The new Fire TV Cube bundle that includes the new Alexa remote will probably be on sale for $89.99, down from $119.99. Even though the Fire TV Cube has been as low as $69.99 for select customers, we now know that those sales were essentially clearance sales to get rid of the older bundle that included the old remote, so it’s not realistic to expect the new bundle to be that low.

The Fire TV Recast is a difficult price to predict because there’s nothing in the past to compare it to. That said, I’m going to throw out a guess of $199.99 for the 2-tuner model, down from $229.99, and $249.99 for the 4-tuner model, down from $279.99. As for the new Alexa Voice Remote, I do not expect it to be on sale during Black Friday. This is because Amazon historically does not discount peripherals nearly as often as their main devices, and when they do, it’s usually not during a major sale. Lastly, since there are now 12 different Fire TV Edition television models, it’s very unlikely that all of them will be heavily discounted during Black Friday. What’s more likely is that a few sizes will be “doorbuster” deals that will be between 25-30% off and sell out early.

Echo / Alexa Black Friday 2018 Prices

The regular Amazon Echo will probably be $69.99, down from $99.99, during Black Friday 2018. However, since it’s now the oldest Echo model that Amazon sells, there’s a chance it’ll drop even lower to $59.99. The new Amazon Echo Dot will probably be $39.99, down from $49.99. Even though the previous Echo Dot has been as low as $29.99, the new one probably won’t see that high of a price drop until sometime around mid-2019. The new Amazon Echo Plus will probably be around $119.99 during Black Friday this year, down from $149.99. That’s the price that the previous Echo Plus model was during its first major sale. As for the new Amazon Echo Sub, if it does go on sale for Black Friday, I can see it dropping to $99.99, down from $129.99. However, it may just be on sale in the form of bundles with other Echo models.

The new Amazon Echo Show is the most difficult Echo model to predict. Normally I’d say it will be $179.99, down from $229.99, because that’s the price that the identically priced first Echo Show was during its first Black Friday, however, the first Echo Show didn’t seem to be selling as well at launch as the new Echo Show. Since the new Echo Show is currently back-ordered, I’ll give it a conservative Black Friday 2018 price prediction of $199.99. The Amazon Echo Spot will probably match its Prime Day price of $99.99 during Black Friday, down from $129.99. However, since it’s now the second oldest Echo device in the lineup, and the only one that has the older non-fabric plastic body, there’s a decent chance it’ll drop to $89.99 or less to start clearing the way for a successor in 2019.

I expect that the new Amazon Smart Plug will be available as a $10 add-on item with any Echo purchase, like Amazon has done in the past with TP-Link plugs. If Amazon’s plug is on sale on its own, it’ll probably be $14.99, down from $24.99. The Amazon Cloud Cam will probably be either $59.99, down from $119.99 to match its Prime Day price, or drop even more to $49.99 with additional savings if you buy 2 or 3 cameras at once. There will surely be Ring and Blink camera sales as well, but there are too many models to list.

Fire Tablet Black Friday 2018 Prices

Surprisingly, Amazon didn’t update the Fire 7 tablet this year, so it’s the oldest model in the lineup. It has been as low as $29.99 in the past, but I would be surprised if it didn’t drop further this Black Friday to $24.99, down from $49.99. The new Fire HD 8, on the other hand, was just released a few days ago, so it might not drop to $49.99 like the older model did during Prime Day. I expect the new Fire HD 8 to be either $59.99 or $49.99 during Black Friday, down from $79.99. The Fire HD 10 has been $99.99, down from $149.99, during the last three major sales, so it’ll likely continue that trend or possibly drop a bit more to $89.99.

Kindle Black Friday 2018 Prices

The regular base Kindle drops to $49.99, down from $79.99, for every major sale, so its unlikely that this Black Friday will be any different. A sale for the new Kindle Paperwhite is more difficult to predict. The previous model usually drops to $89.99 during Black Friday, but since the new model is $10 more expensive than the old one, I’ll guess that it’ll be $99.99 during Black Friday this year, down from $129.99. The flagship Kindle Oasis usually doesn’t go on sale during Black Friday, but if it does this year, it’ll probably be no less than $199.99, down from $249.99, because that’s the lowest price it has ever been.

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13 comments
  1. Sebastian says:

    I’m definitely picking up couple new Firesticks but I’m hoping for a better discount around BF. Would $30-35 be too much to ask…

    • AFTVnews says:

      $34.99 is possible, but unlikely. $29.99 is very unlikely.

      For reference, the $49.99 Echo Dot 2 was $39.99 during BF a month after its release. The $49.99 Fire 7 tablet was $34.99 during BF a month after its release. No device has ever launched at $49.99 and dropped to $29.99 for its first BF sale.

  2. Don Draper says:

    $89.99 for a Fire HD 10? I guess I’ll be getting a 3rd then. I remember last year when AFTVnews mentioned that was the deal that people were sleeping on so I got one for my dad and was so impressed,I bought another one for my mom on Prime Day.The forums over at https://forum.xda-developers.com/hd8-hd10 helps increase that device’s potential even further.

    • AFTVnews says:

      I’m glad it worked out for you. I still think a price of $99.99 is more likely this year, but we’ll see if it drops to $89.99. (BTW, I fixed your typo and deleted your reply.)

  3. BobR says:

    I’m looking for a new voice remote for my second Cube and thinking a discount on the 4K stick would be a better deal If only $10 more even though I don’t need a stick except maybe for travel. Guess I’ll wait for the reviews

  4. Alex says:

    The 2nd firestick went out of stock for a good minute. Amazon couldn’t keep them in stock. The 4K might sell out for a bit. We’ll see.

  5. James P Updike says:

    Amazon blew it by making nothing for the power user. I want a new Fire TV 2… Not a sick or a cube…

    • Flokic says:

      Maybe next year, it would be smart to have a constant Fire TV lineup with three variants: cube, box, stick. They should fix the current (very limited) cube and release a box but I’m afraid, perhaps, they’ll just release a cube 2 and nothing else.

  6. Mark says:

    Any chance of Recast BF discounts?

  7. JFC says:

    Elias, I’ve got an 88-year-old father who still has his wits about him, but these days can’t really handle any tech setup things himself, nor can those who live with/around him.

    I was thinking of getting him an Echo Dot or Echo Show, since he can handle voice commands with his Fire TV Stick 2nd gen just fine. And being able to use the Echo’s voice calling or even video calling would be great.

    But what I haven’t been able to figure out is, is there a way to REMOTELY set up/re-set up Echo Devices, instead of doing it in-person with the Alexa app on a mobile device?

    Even for my Alexa devices at home, rarely but occasionally, for unknown reasons, they seem to lose their wifi setup, and I have to re-do the setups. If that were to happen to my Dad’s Echo device, he’d be out of luck until the next time I could come visiting.

    • AFTVnews says:

      Someone will need to be physically there with the Echo to get it on WiFi. The only way of getting around that would be for you to have your dad’s WiFi router with you, set up the Echo with that router at your house, then ship your dad both the Echo and the router. This assumes he can reconnect the router to his modem.

      The alternative is to pay someone to install it: https://www.amazon.com/In-home-expert-setup-for-Echo/dp/B01JSNMFMK

      • JFC says:

        Thanks Elias! I was afraid of that.

        Amazon advertises the Echo products toward the senior market, especially with the calling and drop in features.

        But it’s unfortunate they haven’t come up with some kind of remote setup and management technique that would make it possible for us techie folks to better support our less techie elders.

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